Lesson 015 min read

The Number That Predicts If Your Business Will Survive

Banks know this number about your business. Investors know it. Your landlord wishes they knew it. Most business owners have no idea what theirs is.

2 in 3

businesses don't survive 10 years.

Not bad products. Not lack of customers. Not poor marketing. Cash. The timing gap between when money goes out and when it comes in kills more businesses than anything else.

What it is

Your Survival Runway

The number of weeks your business could survive if all revenue stopped tomorrow. Not "how much is in the bank" — the real math factors in receivables, payables, and burn rate.

Why it kills

Profit ≠ Survival

You can be profitable on paper and still run out of money. That $50K invoice means nothing if the client pays in 90 days and rent is due Friday. Cash timing kills profitable businesses every day.

Think of it this way

The Fuel Gauge

Like a pilot's fuel gauge — you need to know how far you can fly before you need to land. Pilots check this obsessively. Most business owners never check it at all.

From 15+ years advising

They Weren't Stupid

I've sat across from hundreds of owners. The ones who failed weren't stupid or lazy. They just didn't know this number. They thought "profitable" meant "safe."

The Formula

(Cash + Receivables - Payables) ÷ Weekly Burn
= Weeks of Runway
Cash
In your accounts now
Receivables
Money owed to you
Payables
Money you owe
Weekly Burn
Fixed costs per week
"

Profit is a story. Cash is a fact.

What's a "Safe" Runway?

< 8 weeks
Danger Zone

One bad month away from panic mode. Every decision becomes about survival, not growth.

8-16 weeks
Breathing Room

Margin for error, but not much. A slow season or lost client could still hurt.

16+ weeks
Strong Position

Strategic decisions. Say no to bad clients. Invest in growth from a position of strength.

Takes about 2 minutes. No email required.

Survival Runway Calculator

Enter your numbers. Get your runway. See exactly where you stand.

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Real Questions, Real Answers

Everything you might be wondering about survival runway.

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